Environmental differences explain subtle yet detectable genetic structure in a widespread pollinator.

BACKGROUND: The environment is a strong driver of genetic structure in many natural populations, yet often neglected in population genetic studies. This may be a particular problem in vagile species, where subtle structure cannot be explained by limitations to dispersal. Consequently, these species might falsely be considered quasi-panmictic and hence potentially mismanaged. A species this might apply to, is the buff-tailed bumble bee (Bombus terrestris), an economically important and widespread pollinator, which is considered to be quasi-panmictic at mainland continental scales. Here we aimed to (i) quantify genetic structure in 21+ populations of the buff-tailed bumble bee, sampled throughout two Eastern European countries, and (ii) analyse the degree to which structure is explained by environmental differences, habitat permeability and geographic distance. Using 12 microsatellite loci, we characterised populations of this species with Fst analyses, complemented by discriminant analysis of principal components and Bayesian clustering approaches. We then applied generalized dissimilarity modelling to simultaneously assess the informativeness of geographic distance, habitat permeability and environmental differences among populations in explaining divergence. RESULTS: Genetic structure of the buff-tailed bumble bee quantified by means of Fst was subtle and not detected by Bayesian clustering. Discriminant analysis of principal components suggested insignificant but still noticeable structure that slightly exceeded estimates obtained through Fst analyses. As expected, geographic distance and habitat permeability were not informative in explaining the spatial pattern of genetic divergence. Yet, environmental variables related to temperature, vegetation and topography were highly informative, explaining between 33 and 39% of the genetic variation observed. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to previous studies reporting quasi-panmixia in continental populations of this species, we demonstrated the presence of subtle population structure related to environmental heterogeneity. Environmental data proved to be highly useful in unravelling the drivers of genetic structure in this vagile and opportunistic species. We highlight the potential of including these data to obtain a better understanding of population structure and the processes driving it in species considered to be quasi-panmictic.

Limited reciprocal surrogacy of bird and habitat diversity and inconsistencies in their representation in Romanian protected areas.

Because it is impossible to comprehensively characterize biodiversity at all levels of organization, conservation prioritization efforts need to rely on surrogates. As species distribution maps of relished groups as well as high-resolution remotely sensed data increasingly become available, both types of surrogates are commonly used. A good surrogate should represent as much of biodiversity as possible, but it often remains unclear to what extent this is the case. Here, we aimed to address this question by assessing how well bird species and habitat diversity represent one another. We conducted our study in Romania, a species-rich country with high landscape heterogeneity where bird species distribution data have only recently started to become available. First, we prioritized areas for conservation based on either 137 breeding bird species or 36 habitat classes, and then evaluated their reciprocal surrogacy performance. Second, we examined how well these features are represented in already existing protected areas. Finally, we identified target regions of high conservation value for the potential expansion of the current network of reserves (as planned under the new EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030). We found a limited reciprocal surrogacy performance, with bird species performing slightly better as a conservation surrogate for habitat diversity than vice versa. We could also show that areas with a high conservation value based on habitat diversity were represented better in already existing protected areas than areas based on bird species, which varied considerably between species. Our results highlight that taxonomic and environmental (i.e., habitat types) data may perform rather poorly as reciprocal surrogates, and multiple sources of data are required for a full evaluation of protected areas expansion.

Genomic vulnerability and socio-economic threats under climate change in an African rainforest bird.

Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype-environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest-savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species-specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.

Experimental simulation of environmental warming selects against pigmented morphs of land snails.

In terrestrial snails, thermal selection acts on shell coloration. However, the biological relevance of small differences in the intensity of shell pigmentation and the associated thermodynamic, physiological, and evolutionary consequences for snail diversity within the course of environmental warming are still insufficiently understood. To relate temperature-driven internal heating, protein and membrane integrity impairment, escape behavior, place of residence selection, water loss, and mortality, we used experimentally warmed open-top chambers and field observations with a total of >11,000 naturally or experimentally colored individuals of the highly polymorphic species Theba pisana (O.F. MÜller, 1774). We show that solar radiation in their natural Mediterranean habitat in Southern France poses intensifying thermal stress on increasingly pigmented snails that cannot be compensated for by behavioral responses. Individuals of all morphs acted neither jointly nor actively competed in climbing behavior, but acted similarly regardless of neighbor pigmentation intensity. Consequently, dark morphs progressively suffered from high internal temperatures, oxidative stress, and a breakdown of the chaperone system. Concomitant with increasing water loss, mortality increased with more intense pigmentation under simulated global warming conditions. In parallel with an increase in mean ambient temperature of 1.34°C over the past 30 years, the mortality rate of pigmented individuals in the field is, currently, about 50% higher than that of white morphs. A further increase of 1.12°C, as experimentally simulated in our study, would elevate this rate by another 26%. For 34 T. pisana populations from locations that are up to 2.7°C warmer than our experimental site, we show that both the frequency of pigmented morphs and overall pigmentation intensity decrease with an increase in average summer temperatures. We therefore predict a continuing strong decline in the frequency of pigmented morphs and a decrease in overall pigmentation intensity with ongoing global change in areas with strong solar radiation.

Unraveling the habitat preferences of two closely related bumble bee species in Eastern Europe.

Co-occurrence of closely related species is often explained through resource partitioning, where key morphological or life-history traits evolve under strong divergent selection. In bumble bees (genus Bombus), differences in tongue lengths, nest sites, and several life-history traits are the principal factors in resource partitioning. However, the buff-tailed and white-tailed bumble bee (Bombus terrestris and B. lucorum respectively) are very similar in morphology and life history, but their ranges nevertheless partly overlap, raising the question how they are ecologically divergent. What little is known about the environmental factors determining their distributions stems from studies in Central and Western Europe, but even less information is available about their distributions in Eastern Europe, where different subspecies occur. Here, we aimed to disentangle the broad habitat requirements and associated distributions of these species in Romania and Bulgaria. First, we genetically identified sampled individuals from many sites across the study area. We then not only computed species distributions based on presence-only data, but also expanded on these models using relative abundance data. We found that B. terrestris is a more generalist species than previously thought, but that B. lucorum is restricted to forested areas with colder and wetter climates, which in our study area are primarily found at higher elevations. Both vegetation parameters such as annual mean Leaf Area Index and canopy height, as well as climatic conditions, were important in explaining their distributions. Although our models based on presence-only data suggest a large overlap in their respective distributions, results on their relative abundance suggest that the two species replace one another across an environmental gradient correlated to elevation. The inclusion of abundance enhances our understanding of the distribution of these species, supporting the emerging recognition of the importance of abundance data in species distribution modeling.

Ghosts of infections past: using archival samples to understand a century of monkeypox virus prevalence among host communities across space and time.

Infectious diseases that originate from multiple wildlife hosts can be complex and problematic to manage. A full understanding is further limited by large temporal and spatial gaps in sampling. However, these limitations can be overcome, in part, by using historical samples, such as those derived from museum collections. Here, we screened over 1000 museum specimens collected over the past 120 years to examine the historical distribution and prevalence of monkeypox virus (MPXV) in five species of African rope squirrel (Funisciurus sp.) collected across Central Africa. We found evidence of MPXV infections in host species as early as 1899, half a century earlier than the first recognized case of MPXV in 1958, supporting the suggestion that historic pox-like outbreaks in humans and non-human primates may have been caused by MPXV rather than smallpox as originally thought. MPX viral DNA was found in 93 of 1038 (9.0%) specimens from five Funisciurus species (F. anerythrus, F. carruthersi, F. congicus, F. lemniscatus and F. pyrropus), of which F. carruthersi and pyrropus had not previously been identified as potential MPXV hosts. We additionally documented relative prevalence rates of infection in museum specimens of Funisciurus and examined the spatial and temporal distribution of MPXV in these potential host species across nearly a hundred years (1899-1993).

Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning.

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11-81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions.

Evaluating the role of Pleistocene refugia, rivers and environmental variation in the diversification of central African duikers (genera Cephalophus and Philantomba).

BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess the role that Pleistocene refugia, rivers and local habitat conditions may have played in the evolutionary diversification of three central African duiker species (Cephalophus dorsalis, C. callipygus and Philantomba monticola). Genetic data from geo-referenced feces were collected from a wide range of sites across Central Africa. Historical patterns of population genetic structure were assessed using a ~ 650 bp fragment of the mitochondrial control region and contemporary patterns of genetic differentiation were evaluated using 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci. RESULTS: Mitochondrial analyses revealed that populations of C. callipygus and P. monticola in the Gulf of Guinea refugium are distinct from other populations in west central Africa. All three species exhibit signatures of past population expansion across much of the study area consistent with a history of postglacial expansion. There was no strong evidence for a riverine barrier effect in any of the three species, suggesting that duikers can readily cross major rivers. Generalized dissimilarity models (GDM) showed that environmental variation explains most of the nuclear genetic differentiation in both C. callipygus and P. monticola. The forest-savanna transition across central Cameroon and the Plateaux Batéké region in southeastern Gabon show the highest environmentally-associated turnover in genetic variability. A pattern of genetic differentiation was also evident between the coast and forest interior that may reflect differences in precipitation and/or vegetation. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study highlight the historical impact of Pleistocene fragmentation and current influence of environmental variation on genetic structure in duikers. Conservation efforts should therefore target areas that harbor as much environmentally-associated genetic variation as possible in order to maximize species' capacity to adapt to environmental change.

Environmental selection is a main driver of divergence in house sparrows (Passer domesticus) in Romania and Bulgaria.

Both neutral and adaptive evolutionary processes can cause population divergence, but their relative contributions remain unclear. We investigated the roles of these processes in population divergence in house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from Romania and Bulgaria, regions characterized by high landscape heterogeneity compared to Western Europe. We asked whether morphological divergence, complemented with genetic data in this human commensal species, was best explained by environmental variation, geographic distance, or landscape resistance-the effort it takes for an individual to disperse from one location to the other-caused by either natural or anthropogenic barriers. Using generalized dissimilarity modeling, a matrix regression technique that fits biotic beta diversity to both environmental predictors and geographic distance, we found that a small set of climate and vegetation variables explained up to ~30% of the observed divergence, whereas geographic and resistance distances played much lesser roles. Our results are consistent with signals of selection on morphological traits and of isolation by adaptation in genetic markers, suggesting that selection by natural environmental conditions shapes population divergence in house sparrows. Our study thus contributes to a growing body of evidence that adaptive evolution may be a major driver of diversification.

How the zebra got its stripes: a problem with too many solutions.

The adaptive significance of zebra stripes has thus far eluded understanding. Many explanations have been suggested, including social cohesion, thermoregulation, predation evasion and avoidance of biting flies. Identifying the associations between phenotypic and environmental factors is essential for testing these hypotheses and substantiating existing experimental evidence. Plains zebra striping pattern varies regionally, from heavy black and white striping over the entire body in some areas to reduced stripe coverage with thinner and lighter stripes in others. We examined how well 29 environmental variables predict the variation in stripe characteristics of plains zebra across their range in Africa. In contrast to recent findings, we found no evidence that striping may have evolved to escape predators or avoid biting flies. Instead, we found that temperature successfully predicts a substantial amount of the stripe pattern variation observed in plains zebra. As this association between striping and temperature may be indicative of multiple biological processes, we suggest that the selective agents driving zebra striping are probably multifarious and complex.

Environmental variation and rivers govern the structure of chimpanzee genetic diversity in a biodiversity hotspot.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms that underlie the diversification of tropical animals remain poorly understood, but new approaches that combine geo-spatial modeling with spatially explicit genetic data are providing fresh insights on this topic. Data about the diversification of tropical mammals remain particularly sparse, and vanishingly few opportunities exist to study endangered large mammals that increasingly exist only in isolated pockets. The chimpanzees of Cameroon represent a unique opportunity to examine the mechanisms that promote genetic differentiation in tropical mammals because the region is home to two chimpanzee subspecies: Pan troglodytes ellioti and P. t. trogolodytes. Their ranges converge in central Cameroon, which is a geographically, climatically and environmentally complex region that presents an unparalleled opportunity to examine the roles of rivers and/or environmental variation in influencing the evolution of chimpanzee populations. RESULTS: We analyzed microsatellite genotypes and mtDNA HVRI sequencing data from wild chimpanzees sampled at a fine geographic scale across Cameroon and eastern Nigeria using a spatially explicit approach based upon Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling. Both the Sanaga River and environmental variation were found to contribute to driving separation of the subspecies. The importance of environmental variation differed among subspecies. Gene-environment associations were weak in P. t. troglodytes, whereas environmental variation was found to play a much larger role in shaping patterns of genetic differentiation in P. t. ellioti. CONCLUSIONS: We found that both the Sanaga River and environmental variation likely play a role in shaping patterns of chimpanzee genetic diversity. Future studies using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data are necessary to further understand how rivers and environmental variation contribute to shaping patterns of genetic variation in chimpanzees.

A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change.

Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003-2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector-borne disease under climate change.

Regional differences in seasonal timing of rainfall discriminate between genetically distinct East African giraffe taxa.

Masai (Giraffa tippelskirchi), Reticulated (G. reticulata) and Rothschild's (G. camelopardalis) giraffe lineages in East Africa are morphologically and genetically distinct, yet in Kenya their ranges abut. This raises the question of how divergence is maintained among populations of a large mammal capable of long-distance travel, and which readily hybridize in zoos. Here we test four hypotheses concerning the maintenance of the phylogeographic boundaries among the three taxa: 1) isolation-by-distance; 2) physical barriers to dispersal; 3) general habitat differences resulting in habitat segregation; or 4) regional differences in the seasonal timing of rainfall, and resultant timing of browse availability. We used satellite remotely sensed and climate data to characterize the environment at the locations of genotyped giraffes. Canonical variate analysis, random forest algorithms, and generalized dissimilarity modelling were employed in a landscape genetics framework to identify the predictor variables that best explained giraffes' genetic divergence. We found that regional differences in the timing of precipitation, and resulting green-up associated with the abundance of browse, effectively discriminate between taxa. Local habitat conditions, topographic and human-induced barriers, and geographic distance did not aid in discriminating among lineages. Our results suggest that selection associated with regional timing of events in the annual climatic cycle may help maintain genetic and phenotypic divergence in giraffes. We discuss potential mechanisms of maintaining divergence, and suggest that synchronization of reproduction with seasonal rainfall cycles that are geographically distinct may contribute to reproductive isolation. Coordination of weaning with green-up cycles could minimize the costs of lactation and predation on the young. Our findings are consistent with theory and empirical results demonstrating the efficacy of seasonal or phenologically dictated selection pressures in contributing to the reproductive isolation of parapatric populations.

Pathogen-host associations and predicted range shifts of human monkeypox in response to climate change in central Africa.

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4(th) Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.

Intraspecific morphological and genetic variation of common species predicts ranges of threatened ones.

Predicting where threatened species occur is useful for making informed conservation decisions. However, because they are usually rare, surveying threatened species is often expensive and time intensive. Here, we show how regions where common species exhibit high genetic and morphological divergence among populations can be used to predict the occurrence of species of conservation concern. Intraspecific variation of common species of birds, bats and frogs from Ecuador were found to be a significantly better predictor for the occurrence of threatened species than suites of environmental variables or the occurrence of amphibians and birds. Fully 93 per cent of the threatened species analysed had their range adequately represented by the geographical distribution of the morphological and genetic variation found in seven common species. Both higher numbers of threatened species and greater genetic and morphological variation of common species occurred along elevation gradients. Higher levels of intraspecific divergence may be the result of disruptive selection and/or introgression along gradients. We suggest that collecting data on genetic and morphological variation in common species can be a cost effective tool for conservation planning, and that future biodiversity inventories include surveying genetic and morphological data of common species whenever feasible.

A preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor for protecting potential Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) habitat in Southern Mexico.

Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) is one of the most emblematic mammals of Mesoamerica, but like other large-bodied animals, it is facing an increasing risk of extinction due primarily to habitat loss. Mexico's 'ortion of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC-M) is located in one of the main strongholds for Bairds tapir. To assess the MBC-M's effectiveness for tapir conservation, we estimated the distribution of the species' potential habitat by applying 2 modelling approaches (random forest and Maxent) to a set of uncorrelated environmental variables and a 157-point presence dataset. We calculated the extent of tapir habitat in within the MBC-M and modelled new corridors and conservation areas, which we compared to the MBC-M. Moreover, we assessed deforestation patterns in the region. Twenty-seven percent of highly suitable tapir habitat occurred in protected areas, 15% in corridors and 58.3% was outside the MBC-M and associated reserves. The spatial configuration of the MBC-M was partially concordant with the modelled set of conservation areas and corridors. The main dissimilarity was that the modelled corridors traversed forests in Belize and Guatemala to connect conservation areas. Analyses of deforestation since 1993 and human population density in the vicinity of the MBC-M indicated that future conservation efforts should give particular attention to the Montes Azules-El Triunfo Corridor due to greater habitat threat. The MBC-M has a great potential to play a prominent role in the conservation of tapir habitat but there is an urgent need to implement management plans that reinforce and complement this conservation initiative.

The role of ecological variation in driving divergence of sexual and non-sexual traits in the red-backed fairy-wren (Malurus melanocephalus).

BACKGROUND: Many species exhibit geographic variation in sexual signals, and divergence in these traits may lead to speciation. Sexual signals may diverge due to differences in ecology if the environment constrains signal production or transmission. Alternatively, sexual signals may diverge stochastically through sexual selection or genetic drift, with little environmental influence. To distinguish between these alternatives we quantified variation in two putative sexual signals--tail length and plumage color--and a suite of non-sexual morphometric traits across the geographic range of the red-backed fairy-wren (Malurus melanocephalus). We then tested for associations between these traits and a number of environmental variables using generalized dissimilarity models. RESULTS: Variation in morphometric traits was explained well by environmental variation, irrespective of geographic distance between sites. Among putative signals, variation in plumage color was best explained by geographic distance, whereas tail length was best explained by environmental variation. Divergence in male plumage color was not coincident with the boundary between genetic lineages, but was greatest across a contact zone located 300 km east of the genetic boundary. CONCLUSIONS: Morphometric traits describing size and shape have likely been subject to ecological selection and thus appear to track local environmental variation regardless of subspecies identity. Ecological selection appears to have also influenced the evolution of tail length as a signal, but has played a limited role in shaping geographic variation in plumage color, consistent with stochastic divergence in concert with Fisherian selection on this trait. The lack of coincidence between the genetic boundary and the contact zone between plumage types suggests that the sexual plumage signal of one subspecies has introgressed into the genetic background of the other. Thus, this study provides insight into the various ways in which signal evolution may occur within a species, and the geographic patterns of signal variation that can arise, especially following secondary contact.

Host and habitat specialization of avian malaria in Africa.

Studies of both vertebrates and invertebrates have suggested that specialists, as compared to generalists, are likely to suffer more serious declines in response to environmental change. Less is known about the effects of environmental conditions on specialist versus generalist parasites. Here, we study the evolutionary strategies of malaria parasites (Plasmodium spp.) among different bird host communities. We determined the parasite diversity and prevalence of avian malaria in three bird communities in the lowland forests in Cameroon, highland forests in East Africa and fynbos in South Africa. We calculated the host specificity index of parasites to examine the range of hosts parasitized as a function of the habitat and investigated the phylogenetic relationships of parasites. First, using phylogenetic and ancestral reconstruction analyses, we found an evolutionary tendency for generalist malaria parasites to become specialists. The transition rate at which generalists become specialists was nearly four times as great as the rate at which specialists become generalists. We also found more specialist parasites and greater parasite diversity in African lowland rainforests as compared to the more climatically variable habitats of the fynbos and the highland forests. Thus, with environmental changes, we anticipate a change in the distribution of both specialist and generalist parasites with potential impacts on bird communities.

Using remote sensing to map the risk of human monkeypox virus in the Congo Basin.

Although the incidence of human monkeypox has greatly increased in Central Africa over the last decade, resources for surveillance remain extremely limited. We conducted a geospatial analysis using existing data to better inform future surveillance efforts. Using active surveillance data collected between 2005 and 2007, we identified locations in Sankuru district, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where there have been one or more cases of human monkeypox. To assess what taxa constitute the main reservoirs of monkeypox, we tested whether human cases were associated with (i) rope squirrels (Funisciurus sp.), which were implicated in monkeypox outbreaks elsewhere in the DRC in the 1980s, or (ii) terrestrial rodents in the genera Cricetomys and Graphiurus, which are believed to be monkeypox reservoirs in West Africa. Results suggest that the best predictors of human monkeypox cases are proximity to dense forests and associated habitat preferred by rope squirrels. The risk of contracting monkeypox is significantly greater near sites predicted to be habitable for squirrels (OR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.08-1.63). We recommend that semi-deciduous rainforests with oil-palm, the rope squirrel's main food source, be prioritized for monitoring.

Mapping evolutionary process: a multi-taxa approach to conservation prioritization.

Human-induced land use changes are causing extensive habitat fragmentation. As a result, many species are not able to shift their ranges in response to climate change and will likely need to adapt in situ to changing climate conditions. Consequently, a prudent strategy to maintain the ability of populations to adapt is to focus conservation efforts on areas where levels of intraspecific variation are high. By doing so, the potential for an evolutionary response to environmental change is maximized. Here, we use modeling approaches in conjunction with environmental variables to model species distributions and patterns of genetic and morphological variation in seven Ecuadorian amphibian, bird, and mammal species. We then used reserve selection software to prioritize areas for conservation based on intraspecific variation or species-level diversity. Reserves selected using species richness and complementarity showed little overlap with those based on genetic and morphological variation. Priority areas for intraspecific variation were mainly located along the slopes of the Andes and were largely concordant among species, but were not well represented in existing reserves. Our results imply that in order to maximize representation of intraspecific variation in reserves, genetic and morphological variation should be included in conservation prioritization.